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单月大涨超五成 潍柴动力背后逻辑何在

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单月大涨超五成 潍柴动力背后逻辑何在年月,春季行情再起,赚钱效应依旧不改,但风格分化也格外明显。其中,资金抱团白马行情持续升温,尤其是消费、科技、新能源板块(以电动车和光伏为主)的核心龙头,更是启......单月大涨超五成 潍柴动力背后逻辑何在

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年[nian]月[yue],春[chun]季[ji]行[xing]情[qing]再[zai]起[qi],赚[zhuan]钱[qian]效[xiao]应[ying]依[yi]旧[jiu]不[bu]改[gai],但[dan]风[feng]格[ge]分[fen]化[hua]也[ye]格[ge]外[wai]明[ming]显[xian]。其[qi]中[zhong],资[zi]金[jin]抱[bao]团[tuan]白[bai]马[ma]行[xing]情[qing]持[chi]续[xu]升[sheng]温[wen],尤[you]其[qi]是[shi]消[xiao]费[fei]、科[ke]技[ji]、新[xin]能[nen]源[yuan]板[ban]块[kuai](以[yi]电[dian]动[dong]车[che]和[he]光[guang]伏[fu]为[wei]主[zhu])的[de]核[he]心[xin]龙[long]头[tou],更[geng]是[shi]启[qi]动[dong]了[liao]加[jia]速[su]狂[kuang]飙[biao]模[mo]式[shi],上[shang]车[che]的[de]投[tou]资[zi]者[zhe]无[wu]不[bu]直[zhi]呼[hu]真[zhen]香[xiang]。 如[ru]今[jin],回[hui]看[kan]A股[gu]各[ge]大[da]盘[pan]股[gu]的[de]表[biao]现[xian],潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]上[shang]行[xing]攻[gong]势[shi]凌[ling]厉[li],A股[gu]和[he]港[gang]股[gu]量[liang]价[jia]齐[qi]升[sheng],表[biao]现[xian]最[zui]为[wei]抢[qiang]眼[yan],开[kai]年[nian]距[ju]今[jin]仅[jin]一[yi]个[ge]月[yue]左[zuo]右[you]时[shi]间[jian],股[gu]价[jia]已[yi]大[da]涨[zhang]超[chao]五[wu]成[cheng],总[zong]市[shi]值[zhi]逼[bi]近[jin]亿[yi]元[yuan]。 那[na]么[me],潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]大[da]涨[zhang]背[bei]后[hou]的[de]逻[luo]辑[ji]何[he]在[zai]?能[nen]否[fu]延[yan]续[xu]?笔[bi]者[zhe]认[ren]为[wei]主[zhu]要[yao]源[yuan]于[yu]两[liang]方[fang]面[mian]的[de]主[zhu]要[yao]原[yuan]因[yin]: ● &;行[xing]业[ye]高[gao]景[jing]气[qi]有[you]望[wang]延[yan]续[xu] 尽[jin]管[guan]自[zi]年[nian]以[yi]来[lai],车[che]市[shi]整[zheng]体[ti]步[bu]入[ru]深[shen]度[du]调[diao]整[zheng]阶[jie]段[duan],乘[cheng]用[yong]车[che]市[shi]场[chang]消[xiao]费[fei]需[xu]求[qiu]持[chi]续[xu]低[di]迷[mi],但[dan]商[shang]用[yong]车[che]市[shi]场[chang]却[que]持[chi]续[xu]强[qiang]劲[jing],去[qu]年[nian]更[geng]是[shi]“商[shang]用[yong]车[che]大[da]年[nian]”。以[yi]卡[ka]车[che]为[wei]例[li],年[nian],累[lei]计[ji]销[xiao]量[liang]万[wan]台[tai],同[tong]比[bi]增[zeng]速[su]达[da]。其[qi]中[zhong],重[zhong]卡[ka]销[xiao]量[liang]达[da]万[wan]台[tai],同[tong]比[bi]增[zeng]速[su]接[jie]近[jin]。根[gen]据[ju]行[xing]业[ye]发[fa]展[zhan]主[zhu]逻[luo]辑[ji]来[lai]看[kan],以[yi]国[guo]三[san]淘[tao]汰[tai]为[wei]代[dai]表[biao]的[de]环[huan]保[bao]治[zhi]理[li]政[zheng]策[ce]是[shi]关[guan]键[jian]推[tui]动[dong]力[li],国[guo]产[chan]替[ti]代[dai]及[ji]高[gao]端[duan]化[hua]成[cheng]为[wei]行[xing]业[ye]成[cheng]长[chang]的[de]核[he]心[xin]驱[qu]动[dong]逻[luo]辑[ji]。 今[jin]年[nian]月[yue]重[zhong]卡[ka]市[shi]场[chang]再[zai]传[chuan]捷[jie]报[bao],进[jin]而[er]提[ti]振[zhen]了[liao]板[ban]块[kuai]情[qing]绪[xu]。据[ju]第[di]一[yi]商[shang]用[yong]车[che]网[wang]报[bao]道[dao]显[xian]示[shi],今[jin]年[nian]月[yue]中[zhong]国[guo]重[zhong]卡[ka]市[shi]场[chang]预[yu]计[ji]销[xiao]售[shou]各[ge]类[lei]车[che]型[xing]万[wan]辆[liang](开[kai]票[piao]数[shu]口[kou]径[jing]),同[tong]比[bi]大[da]幅[fu]增[zeng]长[chang],连[lian]续[xu]个[ge]月[yue]刷[shua]新[xin]单[dan]月[yue]历[li]史[shi]纪[ji]录[lu]。而[er]潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]的[de]两[liang]大[da]重[zhong]要[yao]客[ke]户[hu]陕[shan]重[zhong]汽[qi]和[he]中[zhong]国[guo]重[zhong]汽[qi]合[he]计[ji]销[xiao]售[shou]万[wan]台[tai],占[zhan]总[zong]销[xiao]量[liang]的[de]。综[zong]合[he]业[ye]内[na]分[fen]析[xi]来[lai]看[kan],未[wei]来[lai]在[zai]环[huan]保[bao]政[zheng]策[ce]国[guo]产[chan]替[ti]代[dai]双[shuang]线[xian]驱[qu]动[dong]下[xia],以[yi]重[zhong]卡[ka]为[wei]代[dai]表[biao]的[de]国[guo]内[na]工[gong]业[ye]机[ji]械[xie]行[xing]业[ye]高[gao]景[jing]气[qi]有[you]望[wang]延[yan]续[xu]。 ● &;潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]开[kai]启[qi]全[quan]新[xin]成[cheng]长[chang]周[zhou]期[qi] 潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]作[zuo]为[wei]根[gen]正[zheng]苗[miao]红[hong]的[de]大[da]白[bai]马[ma],其[qi]价[jia]值[zhi]已[yi]毋[wu]庸[yong]多[duo]言[yan],一[yi]直[zhi]都[du]深[shen]受[shou]外[wai]资[zi]和[he]机[ji]构[gou]偏[pian]爱[ai]的[de]重[zhong]仓[cang]股[gu]。潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]凭[ping]借[jie]内[na]生[sheng]及[ji]外[wai]延[yan]双[shuang]线[xian]扩[kuo]张[zhang]战[zhan]略[lue],已[yi]构[gou]建[jian]起[qi]动[dong]力[li]总[zong]成[cheng]、智[zhi]能[nen]物[wu]流[liu]及[ji]液[ye]压[ya]系[xi]统[tong]三[san]大[da]产[chan]业[ye]链[lian],并[bing]实[shi]现[xian]黄[huang]金[jin]卡[ka]位[wei],毫[hao]不[bu]夸[kua]张[zhang]地[di]说[shuo],其[qi]地[di]位[wei]可[ke]等[deng]同[tong]于[yu]手[shou]机[ji]产[chan]业[ye]链[lian]中[zhong]的[de]华[hua]为[wei]。 而[er]认[ren]为[wei]其[qi]是[shi]“高[gao]端[duan]制[zhi]造[zao]中[zhong]的[de]茅[mao]台[tai]”的[de]声[sheng]音[yin]在[zai]最[zui]近[jin]也[ye]不[bu]绝[jue]于[yu]耳[er],实[shi]际[ji]上[shang],潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]的[de]基[ji]本[ben]面[mian]正[zheng]迎[ying]来[lai]重[zhong]大[da]变[bian]化[hua]。 去[qu]年[nian]底[di]披[pi]露[lu]的[de]亿[yi]元[yuan]定[ding]增[zeng]计[ji]划[hua],无[wu]疑[yi]是[shi]近[jin]来[lai]市[shi]场[chang]最[zui]为[wei]关[guan]注[zhu]与[yu]热[re]议[yi]的[de]焦[jiao]点[dian],也[ye]是[shi]个[ge]其[qi]业[ye]务[wu]全[quan]面[mian]升[sheng]级[ji]的[de]关[guan]键[jian]信[xin]号[hao]。 根[gen]据[ju]定[ding]增[zeng]公[gong]告[gao]显[xian]示[shi],主[zhu]要[yao]募[mu]投[tou]项[xiang]目[mu]涉[she]及[ji]燃[ran]料[liao]电[dian]池[chi]、全[quan]系[xi]列[lie]液[ye]压[ya]总[zong]成[cheng]和[he]大[da]型[xing]CVT、大[da]缸[gang]径[jing]及[ji]H平[ping]台[tai]高[gao]端[duan]发[fa]动[dong]机[ji]等[deng]产[chan]业[ye],意[yi]在[zai]推[tui]动[dong]业[ye]务[wu]全[quan]面[mian]升[sheng]级[ji]。 值[zhi]得[de]一[yi]提[ti]的[de]是[shi],本[ben]次[ci]募[mu]投[tou]重[zhong]点[dian]建[jian]设[she]的[de]燃[ran]料[liao]电[dian]池[chi]产[chan]业[ye]链[lian],包[bao]括[kuo]氢[qing]燃[ran]料[liao]电[dian]池[chi]及[ji]关[guan]键[jian]零[ling]部[bu]件[jian]、固[gu]态[tai]氧[yang]化[hua]物[wu]燃[ran]料[liao]电[dian]池[chi]、车[che]载[zai]储[chu]氢[qing]系[xi]统[tong]、电[dian]机[ji]及[ji]控[kong]制[zhi]器[qi]、电[dian]驱[qu]动[dong]总[zong]成[cheng]、混[hun]合[he]动[dong]力[li]等[deng]全[quan]产[chan]业[ye]链[lian]生[sheng]产[chan]线[xian]。这[zhe]不[bu]仅[jin]切[qie]合[he]国[guo]家[jia]的[de]新[xin]能[nen]源[yuan]发[fa]展[zhan]方[fang]针[zhen]政[zheng]策[ce],极[ji]具[ju]前[qian]瞻[zhan]性[xing]优[you]势[shi]。 据[ju]了[liao]解[jie],潍[wei]柴[chai]已[yi]通[tong]过[guo]前[qian]期[qi]投[tou]资[zi]布[bu]局[ju]成[cheng]为[wei]巴[ba]拉[la]德[de]和[he]锡[xi]里[li]斯[si]第[di]一[yi]大[da]股[gu]东[dong],已[yi]完[wan]成[cheng]氢[qing]燃[ran]料[liao]电[dian]池[chi]和[he]固[gu]态[tai]电[dian]池[chi]的[de]核[he]心[xin]技[ji]术[shu]布[bu]局[ju]关[guan]键[jian]技[ji]术[shu]指[zhi]标[biao]在[zai]商[shang]用[yong]车[che]和[he]能[nen]源[yuan]电[dian]力[li]领[ling]域[yu]全[quan]球[qiu]领[ling]先[xian]。毫[hao]无[wu]疑[yi]问[wen],前[qian]瞻[zhan]的[de]产[chan]业[ye]布[bu]局[ju]及[ji]核[he]心[xin]技[ji]术[shu]的[de]掌[zhang]控[kong],势[shi]必[bi]将[jiang]强[qiang]化[hua]其[qi]在[zai]未[wei]来[lai]新[xin]一[yi]轮[lun]能[nen]源[yuan]变[bian]革[ge]中[zhong]的[de]获[huo]得[de]确[que]定[ding]的[de]增[zeng]长[chang]机[ji]会[hui]。 而[er]此[ci]次[ci]巨[ju]额[e]投[tou]产[chan]计[ji]划[hua]带[dai]来[lai]的[de]业[ye]务[wu]全[quan]面[mian]升[sheng]级[ji],也[ye]被[bei]外[wai]界[jie]视[shi]为[wei]潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]开[kai]启[qi]的[de]“第[di]二[er]增[zeng]长[chang]曲[qu]线[xian]”。本[ben]质[zhi]上[shang]是[shi]体[ti]现[xian]出[chu]在[zai]国[guo]产[chan]替[ti]代[dai]及[ji]技[ji]术[shu]升[sheng]级[ji]背[bei]景[jing]下[xia],潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]凭[ping]借[jie]全[quan]面[mian]高[gao]端[duan]化[hua]发[fa]展[zhan]来[lai]打[da]开[kai]新[xin]的[de]成[cheng]长[chang]空[kong]间[jian]。 归[gui]根[gen]结[jie]底[di],潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]经[jing]过[guo]持[chi]续[xu]多[duo]年[nian]的[de]战[zhan]略[lue]转[zhuan]型[xing]和[he]结[jie]构[gou]调[diao]整[zheng],已[yi]实[shi]现[xian]了[liao]多[duo]元[yuan]化[hua]的[de]发[fa]展[zhan],因[yin]此[ci]早[zao]已[yi]不[bu]能[nen]用[yong]单[dan]一[yi]的[de]“重[zhong]卡[ka]”周[zhou]期[qi]股[gu]的[de]逻[luo]辑[ji]去[qu]看[kan]待[dai],这[zhe]点[dian]其[qi]实[shi]已[yi]反[fan]应[ying]在[zai]其[qi]持[chi]续[xu]增[zeng]长[chang]的[de]业[ye]绩[ji]上[shang]。站[zhan]在[zai]当[dang]前[qian]时[shi]点[dian]看[kan],笔[bi]者[zhe]认[ren]为[wei]潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]存[cun]在[zai]一[yi]些[xie]不[bu]可[ke]忽[hu]视[shi]的[de]价[jia]值[zhi]亮[liang]点[dian]如[ru]下[xia]: A属[shu]于[yu]掌[zhang]握[wo]核[he]心[xin]技[ji]术[shu]的[de]高[gao]端[duan]制[zhi]造[zao]标[biao]的[de],能[nen]够[gou]跨[kua]越[yue]周[zhou]期[qi]的[de]成[cheng]长[chang]性[xing]龙[long]头[tou],即[ji]将[jiang]开[kai]启[qi]新[xin]的[de]成[cheng]长[chang]周[zhou]期[qi]; B多[duo]元[yuan]化[hua]的[de]业[ye]务[wu]布[bu]局[ju]向[xiang]高[gao]端[duan]化[hua]市[shi]场[chang]渗[shen]透[tou],持[chi]续[xu]增[zeng]强[qiang]集[ji]团[tuan]盈[ying]利[li]能[nen]力[li],包[bao]括[kuo]发[fa]动[dong]机[ji]、智[zhi]能[nen]物[wu]流[liu]、新[xin]能[nen]源[yuan]、高[gao]端[duan]液[ye]压[ya]和[he]CVT、大[da]缸[gang]径[jing]发[fa]动[dong]机[ji]等[deng]高[gao]科[ke]技[ji]板[ban]块[kuai]; C低[di]估[gu]值[zhi]的[de]核[he]心[xin]资[zi]产[chan],市[shi]场[chang]往[wang]往[wang]会[hui]给[gei]予[yu]以[yi]高[gao]端[duan]制[zhi]造[zao]龙[long]头[tou]倍[bei]左[zuo]右[you]的[de]PE目[mu]前[qian]潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]的[de]PE(TTM)仅[jin]为[wei],仍[reng]有[you]较[jiao]大[da]提[ti]升[sheng]空[kong]间[jian]。 此[ci]外[wai],去[qu]年[nian]由[you]于[yu]重[zhong]卡[ka]发[fa]动[dong]机[ji]的[de]配[pei]套[tao]率[lv]下[xia]降[jiang]及[ji]受[shou]疫[yi]情[qing]影[ying]响[xiang]海[hai]外[wai](凯[kai]傲[ao])业[ye]绩[ji]承[cheng]压[ya],导[dao]致[zhi]市[shi]场[chang]担[dan]忧[you]情[qing]绪[xu]上[shang]升[sheng],因[yin]此[ci],这[zhe]也[ye]就[jiu]解[jie]释[shi]了[liao]去[qu]年[nian]潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]的[de]股[gu]价[jia]并[bing]没[mei]有[you]太[tai]大[da]表[biao]现[xian]。但[dan]下[xia]半[ban]年[nian]潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]的[de]业[ye]绩[ji]也[ye]已[yi]呈[cheng]现[xian]出[chu]明[ming]显[xian]改[gai]善[shan]迹[ji]象[xiang]。 不[bu]得[de]不[bu]承[cheng]认[ren],近[jin]几[ji]年[nian]来[lai],价[jia]值[zhi]投[tou]资[zi]主[zhu]导[dao]趋[qu]势[shi]加[jia]剧[ju]。一[yi]方[fang]面[mian],宏[hong]观[guan]环[huan]境[jing]持[chi]续[xu]承[cheng]压[ya],诸[zhu]多[duo]行[xing]业[ye]已[yi]陆[lu]续[xu]进[jin]入[ru]存[cun]量[liang]竞[jing]争[zheng]时[shi]代[dai],马[ma]太[tai]效[xiao]应[ying]凸[tu]显[xian],强[qiang]者[zhe]恒[heng]强[qiang];另[ling]一[yi]方[fang]面[mian],黑[hei]天[tian]鹅[e]频[pin]频[pin]飞[fei]出[chu],未[wei]来[lai]具[ju]备[bei]十[shi]足[zu]确[que]定[ding]性[xing]的[de]核[he]心[xin]资[zi]产[chan],正[zheng]获[huo]得[de]越[yue]来[lai]越[yue]多[duo]的[de]资[zi]金[jin]青[qing]睐[lai],即[ji]便[bian]认[ren]为[wei]价[jia]格[ge]并[bing]不[bu]便[bian]宜[yi]的[de]市[shi]场[chang]声[sheng]音[yin]不[bu]断[duan]。而[er]像[xiang]潍[wei]柴[chai]动[dong]力[li]正[zheng]当[dang]全[quan]新[xin]成[cheng]长[chang]周[zhou]期[qi]的[de]高[gao]端[duan]制[zhi]造[zao]龙[long]头[tou],而[er]且[qie]估[gu]值[zhi]低[di],想[xiang]不[bu]上[shang]涨[zhang]都[du]难[nan]。

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单月大涨超五成 潍柴动力背后逻辑何在

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