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疫情加剧区域分化 中部重灾地区债务风险或将凸显

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疫情加剧区域分化 中部重灾地区债务风险或将凸显

年以来,伴随地方债务管理改革不断推进,地方政府性债务风险总体可控,显性债务口径下年全国%的省份负债率(债务/GDP)在欧盟%警戒线以内,隐...... 疫情加剧区域分化 中部重灾地区债务风险或将凸显

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年[nian]以[yi]来[lai],伴[ban]随[sui]地[di]方[fang]债[zhai]务[wu]管[guan]理[li]改[gai]革[ge]不[bu]断[duan]推[tui]进[jin],地[di]方[fang]政[zheng]府[fu]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]总[zong]体[ti]可[ke]控[kong],显[xian]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]口[kou]径[jing]下[xia]年[nian]全[quan]国[guo]%的[de]省[sheng]份[fen]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv](债[zhai]务[wu]/GDP)在[zai]欧[ou]盟[meng]%警[jing]戒[jie]线[xian]以[yi]内[na],隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]增[zeng]速[su]放[fang]缓[huan]、风[feng]险[xian]同[tong]样[yang]有[you]所[suo]缓[huan]释[shi]。但[dan]在[zai]当[dang]前[qian]新[xin]肺[fei]炎[yan]疫[yi]情[qing]冲[chong]击[ji]经[jing]济[ji],下[xia]行[xing]压[ya]力[li]凸[tu]显[xian]的[de]背[bei]景[jing]下[xia],区[qu]域[yu]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]仍[reng]需[xu]重[zhong]点[dian]关[guan]注[zhu]。报[bao]告[gao]认[ren]为[wei],地[di]方[fang]政[zheng]府[fu]显[xian]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]整[zheng]体[ti]可[ke]控[kong],部[bu]分[fen]地[di]区[qu]风[feng]险[xian]较[jiao]高[gao]但[dan]出[chu]现[xian]缓[huan]释[shi]。从[cong]数[shu]据[ju]看[kan]年[nian]我[wo]国[guo]地[di]方[fang]政[zheng]府[fu]债[zhai]务[wu]余[yu]额[e]为[wei].万[wan]亿[yi],较[jiao]年[nian]增[zeng]加[jia]了[liao].万[wan]亿[yi]。分[fen]区[qu]域[yu]看[kan],根[gen]据[ju]年[nian]财[cai]政[zheng]预[yu]算[suan]执[zhi]行[xing]情[qing]况[kuang],江[jiang]苏[su]、山[shan]东[dong]、浙[zhe]江[jiang]、广[guang]东[dong]、四[si]川[chuan]、湖[hu]南[nan]显[xian]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]规[gui]模[mo]超[chao]万[wan]亿[yi],海[hai]南[nan]、宁[ning]夏[xia]、青[qing]海[hai]、西[xi]藏[cang]均[jun]在[zai]亿[yi]以[yi]下[xia]。与[yu]年[nian]相[xiang]比[bi],年[nian]各[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]债[zhai]务[wu]余[yu]额[e]均[jun]增[zeng]加[jia],平[ping]均[jun]增[zeng]速[su]为[wei].%,其[qi]中[zhong],西[xi]藏[cang]、甘[gan]肃[su]等[deng]个[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]增[zeng]速[su]较[jiao]高[gao]且[qie]在[zai]%以[yi]上[shang],辽[liao]宁[ning]、贵[gui]州[zhou]增[zeng]长[chang]较[jiao]慢[man]、增[zeng]速[su]未[wei]超[chao]过[guo]%。偿[chang]债[zhai]水[shui]平[ping]方[fang]面[mian],报[bao]告[gao]认[ren]为[wei],显[xian]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]整[zheng]体[ti]可[ke]控[kong]、边[bian]际[ji]小[xiao]幅[fu]上[shang]升[sheng],部[bu]分[fen]地[di]区[qu]风[feng]险[xian]较[jiao]高[gao]但[dan]有[you]所[suo]缓[huan]释[shi]。由[you]于[yu]年[nian]各[ge]省[sheng]综[zong]合[he]财[cai]力[li]数[shu]据[ju]暂[zan]未[wei]全[quan]部[bu]披[pi]露[lu],因[yin]此[ci]用[yong]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv](债[zhai]务[wu]/GDP)衡[heng]量[liang]年[nian]各[ge]省[sheng]地[di]方[fang]政[zheng]府[fu]偿[chang]债[zhai]水[shui]平[ping]。年[nian]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]超[chao]过[guo]%警[jing]戒[jie]线[xian]的[de]省[sheng]份[fen]仅[jin]青[qing]海[hai],风[feng]险[xian]整[zheng]体[ti]可[ke]控[kong]。与[yu]年[nian]相[xiang]比[bi],负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]增[zeng]加[jia]的[de]省[sheng]份[fen]数[shu]量[liang]增[zeng]加[jia]至[zhi]个[ge],较[jiao]年[nian]增[zeng]加[jia]个[ge]、较[jiao]年[nian]增[zeng]加[jia]个[ge],负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]平[ping]均[jun]增[zeng]加[jia].个[ge]百[bai]分[fen]点[dian],显[xian]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]边[bian]际[ji]有[you]所[suo]上[shang]升[sheng],天[tian]津[jin]、吉[ji]林[lin]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]增[zeng]幅[fu]居[ji]前[qian],均[jun]上[shang]升[sheng]个[ge]百[bai]分[fen]点[dian]以[yi]上[shang]。但[dan]值[zhi]得[de]注[zhu]意[yi]的[de]是[shi],个[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]小[xiao]幅[fu]下[xia]降[jiang],贵[gui]州[zhou]、云[yun]南[nan]等[deng]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]较[jiao]高[gao]省[sheng]份[fen]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]均[jun]出[chu]现[xian]回[hui]落[luo]。根[gen]据[ju]中[zhong]诚[cheng]信[xin]国[guo]际[ji]基[ji]于[yu]AHP模[mo]型[xing]构[gou]建[jian]的[de]地[di]方[fang]政[zheng]府[fu]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]指[zhi]数[shu]来[lai]看[kan],长[chang]三[san]角[jiao]、珠[zhu]三[san]角[jiao]等[deng]东[dong]南[nan]部[bu]沿[yan]海[hai]省[sheng]份[fen]到[dao]中[zhong]西[xi]部[bu]和[he]东[dong]北[bei]三[san]省[sheng],债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]指[zhi]数[shu]逐[zhu]步[bu]上[shang]升[sheng];年[nian]风[feng]险[xian]指[zhi]数[shu]较[jiao]小[xiao]的[de]为[wei]经[jing]济[ji]与[yu]财[cai]政[zheng]实[shi]力[li]均[jun]较[jiao]发[fa]达[da]的[de]广[guang]东[dong]、浙[zhe]江[jiang]、江[jiang]苏[su]和[he]上[shang]海[hai],而[er]风[feng]险[xian]指[zhi]数[shu]较[jiao]大[da]地[di]区[qu]主[zhu]要[yao]为[wei]西[xi]北[bei]、西[xi]南[nan]、东[dong]北[bei]区[qu]域[yu]经[jing]济[ji]财[cai]政[zheng]实[shi]力[li]较[jiao]弱[ruo]的[de]省[sheng]份[fen]。从[cong]-年[nian]趋[qu]势[shi]看[kan],年[nian]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]较[jiao]高[gao]的[de]区[qu]域[yu]数[shu]量[liang]占[zhan]比[bi]为[wei]%,较[jiao]年[nian]的[de]%增[zeng]加[jia]了[liao]个[ge]百[bai]分[fen]点[dian],但[dan]较[jiao]年[nian]有[you]所[suo]下[xia]降[jiang],部[bu]分[fen]风[feng]险[xian]较[jiao]高[gao]地[di]区[qu]显[xian]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]得[de]到[dao]一[yi]定[ding]缓[huan]释[shi]。在[zai]隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]方[fang]面[mian],报[bao]告[gao]认[ren]为[wei],其[qi]增[zeng]速[su]回[hui]落[luo],负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]分[fen]化[hua]加[jia]剧[ju]但[dan]整[zheng]体[ti]风[feng]险[xian]边[bian]际[ji]下[xia]降[jiang]。根[gen]据[ju]中[zhong]诚[cheng]信[xin]国[guo]际[ji]估[gu]算[suan],年[nian]我[wo]国[guo]地[di]方[fang]政[zheng]府[fu]隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]在[zai].-.万[wan]亿[yi]左[zuo]右[you],是[shi]显[xian]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]的[de].-.倍[bei]。分[fen]区[qu]域[yu]看[kan],江[jiang]苏[su]及[ji]浙[zhe]江[jiang]规[gui]模[mo]超[chao]万[wan]亿[yi],辽[liao]宁[ning]、甘[gan]肃[su]等[deng]省[sheng]在[zai]亿[yi]以[yi]下[xia]。与[yu]年[nian]相[xiang]比[bi],除[chu]海[hai]南[nan]外[wai]各[ge]省[sheng]隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]规[gui]模[mo]均[jun]增[zeng]加[jia],云[yun]南[nan]、甘[gan]肃[su]等[deng]个[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]增[zeng]速[su]在[zai]%以[yi]上[shang],黑[hei]龙[long]江[jiang]、宁[ning]夏[xia]增[zeng]速[su]在[zai]%以[yi]下[xia];全[quan]国[guo]共[gong]个[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]增[zeng]速[su]较[jiao]年[nian]出[chu]现[xian]回[hui]落[luo]。从[cong]隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]构[gou]成[cheng]看[kan],各[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]仍[reng]以[yi]融[rong]资[zi]平[ping]台[tai]相[xiang]关[guan]债[zhai]务[wu]为[wei]主[zhu],平[ping]均[jun]占[zhan]比[bi]超[chao]过[guo]%。偿[chang]债[zhai]水[shui]平[ping]方[fang]面[mian],若[ruo]考[kao]虑[lv]隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]在[zai]内[na],各[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]分[fen]化[hua]加[jia]剧[ju],但[dan]整[zheng]体[ti]风[feng]险[xian]有[you]所[suo]缓[huan]释[shi]。年[nian]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]超[chao]过[guo]警[jing]戒[jie]线[xian]的[de]省[sheng]份[fen]共[gong]个[ge],较[jiao]显[xian]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]口[kou]径[jing]下[xia]的[de]省[sheng]份[fen]数[shu]量[liang]增[zeng]加[jia]了[liao]个[ge],天[tian]津[jin]、贵[gui]州[zhou]居[ji]前[qian]列[lie],广[guang]东[dong]、上[shang]海[hai]较[jiao]低[di]。与[yu]年[nian]相[xiang]比[bi],负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]超[chao]过[guo]警[jing]戒[jie]线[xian]的[de]省[sheng]份[fen]数[shu]量[liang]较[jiao]年[nian]增[zeng]加[jia]个[ge],分[fen]别[bie]为[wei]吉[ji]林[lin]及[ji]甘[gan]肃[su]。同[tong]时[shi],各[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]分[fen]化[hua]加[jia]剧[ju],云[yun]南[nan]、贵[gui]州[zhou]等[deng]个[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]回[hui]落[luo],幅[fu]度[du]在[zai]-个[ge]百[bai]分[fen]点[dian],隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]有[you]所[suo]缓[huan]释[shi];其[qi]余[yu]省[sheng]份[fen]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]均[jun]有[you]不[bu]同[tong]程[cheng]度[du]增[zeng]长[chang],天[tian]津[jin]、吉[ji]林[lin]、黑[hei]龙[long]江[jiang]、青[qing]海[hai]增[zeng]长[chang]较[jiao]快[kuai]、增[zeng]幅[fu]在[zai]个[ge]百[bai]分[fen]点[dian]以[yi]上[shang],但[dan]含[han]隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]的[de]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]上[shang]升[sheng]的[de]省[sheng]份[fen]数[shu]量[liang]整[zheng]体[ti]有[you]所[suo]减[jian]少[shao],个[ge]省[sheng]份[fen]负[fu]债[zhai]率[lv]增[zeng]加[jia]、较[jiao]年[nian]减[jian]少[shao]个[ge],总[zong]体[ti]上[shang]隐[yin]性[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]边[bian]际[ji]有[you]所[suo]缓[huan]释[shi]。

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疫情加剧区域分化 中部重灾地区债务风险或将凸显

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