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暴涨500点!人民币假期悄然飙升,后市或这样走!

简介:

暴涨500点!人民币假期悄然飙升,后市或这样走!

就在国内还在欢度“双节”假期之际,离岸人民币兑美元汇率市场已悄然大涨近点。 月日,国家外汇局公布的月官方外汇储备数据显示......暴涨500点!人民币假期悄然飙升,后市或这样走!

正文:

就[jiu]在[zai]国[guo]内[na]还[huai]在[zai]欢[huan]度[du]“双[shuang]节[jie]”假[jia]期[qi]之[zhi]际[ji],离[li]岸[an]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]兑[dui]美[mei]元[yuan]汇[hui]率[lv]市[shi]场[chang]已[yi]悄[qiao]然[ran]大[da]涨[zhang]近[jin]点[dian]。 月[yue]日[ri],国[guo]家[jia]外[wai]汇[hui]局[ju]公[gong]布[bu]的[de]月[yue]官[guan]方[fang]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]数[shu]据[ju]显[xian]示[shi],截[jie]至[zhi]月[yue]底[di],我[wo]国[guo]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]规[gui]模[mo]为[wei]亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],较[jiao]月[yue]末[mo]下[xia]降[jiang]亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],降[jiang]幅[fu]为[wei].%。 尽[jin]管[guan]月[yue]外[wai]储[chu]规[gui]模[mo]结[jie]束[shu]此[ci]前[qian]连[lian]续[xu]五[wu]连[lian]涨[zhang]的[de]升[sheng]势[shi],但[dan]年[nian]初[chu]至[zhi]今[jin]外[wai]储[chu]规[gui]模[mo]已[yi]增[zeng]加[jia]亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]。助[zhu]推[tui]外[wai]储[chu]规[gui]模[mo]上[shang]涨[zhang]的[de]重[zhong]要[yao]因[yin]素[su]就[jiu]包[bao]括[kuo]美[mei]元[yuan]指[zhi]数[shu]的[de]变[bian]动[dong],以[yi]及[ji]贸[mao]易[yi]和[he]跨[kua]境[jing]资[zi]本[ben]流[liu]入[ru]等[deng],而[er]这[zhe]些[xie]因[yin]素[su]也[ye]会[hui]影[ying]响[xiang]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]汇[hui]率[lv]。 不[bu]少[shao]分[fen]析[xi]认[ren]为[wei],尽[jin]管[guan]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]单[dan]月[yue]出[chu]现[xian]下[xia]滑[hua],但[dan]全[quan]年[nian]仍[reng]有[you]望[wang]保[bao]持[chi]总[zong]体[ti]稳[wen]定[ding]。同[tong]时[shi],近[jin]期[qi]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]汇[hui]率[lv]显[xian]著[zhu]升[sheng]值[zhi],进[jin]入[ru]四[si]季[ji]度[du]后[hou]受[shou]海[hai]外[wai]市[shi]场[chang]影[ying]响[xiang]可[ke]能[nen]会[hui]出[chu]现[xian]回[hui]调[diao],但[dan]总[zong]体[ti]仍[reng]有[you]望[wang]保[bao]持[chi]稳[wen]定[ding]甚[shen]至[zhi]是[shi]升[sheng]势[shi]。 外[wai]储[chu]规[gui]模[mo]全[quan]年[nian]有[you]望[wang]保[bao]持[chi]稳[wen]定[ding] 月[yue]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]较[jiao]月[yue]下[xia]降[jiang]亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]。国[guo]家[jia]外[wai]汇[hui]局[ju]副[fu]局[ju]长[chang]、新[xin]闻[wen]发[fa]言[yan]人[ren]王[wang]春[chun]英[ying]表[biao]示[shi],月[yue],我[wo]国[guo]外[wai]汇[hui]市[shi]场[chang]供[gong]求[qiu]基[ji]本[ben]平[ping]衡[heng],跨[kua]境[jing]资[zi]金[jin]流[liu]动[dong]总[zong]体[ti]稳[wen]定[ding]。国[guo]际[ji]金[jin]融[rong]市[shi]场[chang]上[shang],受[shou]境[jing]外[wai]新[xin]冠[guan]肺[fei]炎[yan]疫[yi]情[qing]反[fan]复[fu]、主[zhu]要[yao]国[guo]家[jia]货[huo]币[bi]和[he]财[cai]政[zheng]政[zheng]策[ce]等[deng]因[yin]素[su]影[ying]响[xiang],美[mei]元[yuan]指[zhi]数[shu]小[xiao]幅[fu]上[shang]涨[zhang],资[zi]产[chan]价[jia]格[ge]涨[zhang]跌[die]互[hu]现[xian]。汇[hui]率[lv]折[zhe]算[suan]和[he]资[zi]产[chan]价[jia]格[ge]变[bian]化[hua]等[deng]因[yin]素[su]综[zong]合[he]作[zuo]用[yong],当[dang]月[yue]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]规[gui]模[mo]有[you]所[suo]下[xia]降[jiang]。 民[min]生[sheng]银[yin]行[xing]首[shou]席[xi]研[yan]究[jiu]员[yuan]温[wen]彬[bin]也[ye]表[biao]示[shi],估[gu]值[zhi]变[bian]动[dong]、真[zhen]实[shi]贸[mao]易[yi]和[he]跨[kua]境[jing]资[zi]本[ben]流[liu]动[dong]等[deng]因[yin]素[su]综[zong]合[he]作[zuo]用[yong],导[dao]致[zhi]月[yue]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]规[gui]模[mo]回[hui]落[luo]。具[ju]体[ti]来[lai]说[shuo],估[gu]值[zhi]变[bian]动[dong]方[fang]面[mian],从[cong]主[zhu]要[yao]汇[hui]率[lv]变[bian]动[dong]上[shang]看[kan],月[yue]美[mei]元[yuan]汇[hui]率[lv]指[zhi]数[shu]上[shang]涨[zhang].%,主[zhu]要[yao]非[fei]美[mei]元[yuan]货[huo]币[bi]对[dui]美[mei]元[yuan]整[zheng]体[ti]呈[cheng]贬[bian]值[zhi]态[tai]势[shi];从[cong]资[zi]产[chan]价[jia]格[ge]上[shang]看[kan],全[quan]球[qiu]主[zhu]要[yao]资[zi]产[chan]价[jia]格[ge]涨[zhang]跌[die]互[hu]现[xian]。综[zong]合[he]考[kao]虑[lv]汇[hui]率[lv]折[zhe]算[suan]和[he]资[zi]产[chan]价[jia]格[ge]变[bian]化[hua]效[xiao]应[ying],本[ben]月[yue]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]形[xing]成[cheng]估[gu]值[zhi]损[sun]失[shi]。 真[zhen]实[shi]贸[mao]易[yi]和[he]跨[kua]境[jing]资[zi]本[ben]流[liu]动[dong]方[fang]面[mian],温[wen]彬[bin]称[chen],虽[sui]然[ran]海[hai]外[wai]经[jing]济[ji]整[zheng]体[ti]有[you]所[suo]恢[hui]复[fu],经[jing]济[ji]景[jing]气[qi]指[zhi]数[shu]较[jiao]高[gao],但[dan]不[bu]稳[wen]定[ding]不[bu]确[que]定[ding]因[yin]素[su]明[ming]显[xian]增[zeng]多[duo],贸[mao]易[yi]保[bao]护[hu]主[zhu]义[yi]、单[dan]边[bian]主[zhu]义[yi]、地[di]缘[yuan]政[zheng]治[zhi]等[deng]仍[reng]会[hui]对[dui]我[wo]国[guo]出[chu]口[kou]产[chan]生[sheng]不[bu]利[li]影[ying]响[xiang]。而[er]受[shou]近[jin]期[qi]资[zi]本[ben]市[shi]场[chang]波[bo]动[dong]影[ying]响[xiang],月[yue]北[bei]向[xiang]资[zi]金[jin]总[zong]体[ti]呈[cheng]现[xian]流[liu]出[chu]态[tai]势[shi]。根[gen]据[ju]Wind资[zi]讯[xun]统[tong]计[ji],月[yue]北[bei]向[xiang]资[zi]金[jin]累[lei]计[ji]净[jing]流[liu]出[chu].亿[yi]元[yuan]。因[yin]此[ci],跨[kua]境[jing]资[zi]本[ben]流[liu]出[chu]也[ye]在[zai]一[yi]定[ding]程[cheng]度[du]上[shang]导[dao]致[zhi]了[liao]本[ben]月[yue]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]规[gui]模[mo]的[de]回[hui]落[luo]。 实[shi]际[ji]上[shang],尽[jin]管[guan]月[yue]外[wai]储[chu]规[gui]模[mo]结[jie]束[shu]此[ci]前[qian]连[lian]续[xu]五[wu]连[lian]涨[zhang]的[de]升[sheng]势[shi],但[dan]年[nian]初[chu]至[zhi]今[jin]外[wai]储[chu]规[gui]模[mo]已[yi]上[shang]涨[zhang]亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]。展[zhan]望[wang]后[hou]续[xu],不[bu]少[shao]分[fen]析[xi]认[ren]为[wei],外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]全[quan]年[nian]有[you]望[wang]保[bao]持[chi]总[zong]体[ti]稳[wen]定[ding]。 王[wang]春[chun]英[ying]表[biao]示[shi],当[dang]前[qian],境[jing]外[wai]疫[yi]情[qing]和[he]世[shi]界[jie]经[jing]济[ji]形[xing]势[shi]依[yi]然[ran]复[fu]杂[za]严[yan]峻[jun],不[bu]稳[wen]定[ding]不[bu]确[que]定[ding]因[yin]素[su]明[ming]显[xian]增[zeng]多[duo]。但[dan]我[wo]国[guo]已[yi]进[jin]入[ru]高[gao]质[zhi]量[liang]发[fa]展[zhan]阶[jie]段[duan],经[jing]济[ji]稳[wen]中[zhong]向[xiang]好[hao]、长[chang]期[qi]向[xiang]好[hao]的[de]基[ji]本[ben]面[mian]没[mei]有[you]变[bian],我[wo]国[guo]经[jing]济[ji]潜[qian]力[li]足[zu]、韧[ren]性[xing]大[da]、活[huo]力[li]强[qiang]、回[hui]旋[xuan]空[kong]间[jian]大[da]、政[zheng]策[ce]工[gong]具[ju]多[duo]的[de]基[ji]本[ben]特[te]点[dian]没[mei]有[you]变[bian],我[wo]国[guo]发[fa]展[zhan]具[ju]有[you]的[de]多[duo]方[fang]面[mian]优[you]势[shi]和[he]条[tiao]件[jian]没[mei]有[you]变[bian],有[you]利[li]于[yu]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]规[gui]模[mo]总[zong]体[ti]稳[wen]定[ding]。 人[ren]民[min]币[bi]国[guo]际[ji]化[hua]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]强[qiang]化[hua],四[si]季[ji]度[du]汇[hui]率[lv]或[huo]出[chu]现[xian]调[diao]整[zheng] 助[zhu]推[tui]外[wai]储[chu]规[gui]模[mo]上[shang]涨[zhang]的[de]重[zhong]要[yao]因[yin]素[su]就[jiu]包[bao]括[kuo]美[mei]元[yuan]指[zhi]数[shu]的[de]变[bian]动[dong],以[yi]及[ji]贸[mao]易[yi]和[he]跨[kua]境[jing]资[zi]本[ben]流[liu]入[ru]等[deng],而[er]这[zhe]些[xie]因[yin]素[su]也[ye]会[hui]影[ying]响[xiang]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]汇[hui]率[lv]。实[shi]际[ji]上[shang],就[jiu]在[zai]国[guo]内[na]还[huai]在[zai]欢[huan]度[du]“双[shuang]节[jie]”假[jia]期[qi]之[zhi]际[ji],离[li]岸[an]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]兑[dui]美[mei]元[yuan]汇[hui]率[lv]市[shi]场[chang]已[yi]悄[qiao]然[ran]大[da]涨[zhang]近[jin]点[dian]。 截[jie]至[zhi]月[yue]日[ri]:,离[li]岸[an]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]兑[dui]美[mei]元[yuan]汇[hui]率[lv].,日[ri]内[na]涨[zhang]超[chao]点[dian],较[jiao]月[yue]日[ri]上[shang]涨[zhang]近[jin]点[dian],且[qie]一[yi]度[du]涨[zhang]超[chao]点[dian]达[da]到[dao]近[jin].的[de]高[gao]点[dian]。 在[zai]刚[gang]刚[gang]过[guo]去[qu]的[de]三[san]季[ji]度[du],在[zai]岸[an]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]兑[dui]美[mei]元[yuan]涨[zhang]幅[fu]达[da]到[dao].%,为[wei]年[nian]第[di]一[yi]季[ji]度[du]来[lai]最[zui]大[da]单[dan]季[ji]涨[zhang]幅[fu]。节[jie]前[qian]最[zui]后[hou]一[yi]天[tian](月[yue]),在[zai]岸[an]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]兑[dui]美[mei]元[yuan]汇[hui]率[lv]收[shou]盘[pan]于[yu].,目[mu]前[qian]在[zai]岸[an]与[yu]离[li]岸[an]汇[hui]差[cha]超[chao]点[dian],预[yu]计[ji]节[jie]后[hou]第[di]一[yi]个[ge]交[jiao]易[yi]日[ri]在[zai]岸[an]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]兑[dui]美[mei]元[yuan]汇[hui]率[lv]将[jiang]会[hui]出[chu]现[xian]显[xian]著[zhu]补[bu]涨[zhang]。 美[mei]元[yuan]指[zhi]数[shu]的[de]持[chi]续[xu]疲[pi]软[ruan],加[jia]之[zhi]中[zhong]国[guo]自[zi]身[shen]基[ji]本[ben]面[mian]的[de]强[qiang]韧[ren],带[dai]动[dong]今[jin]年[nian]以[yi]来[lai]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]兑[dui]美[mei]元[yuan]汇[hui]率[lv]明[ming]显[xian]走[zou]强[qiang]。随[sui]着[zhou]近[jin]期[qi]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]汇[hui]率[lv]的[de]不[bu]断[duan]升[sheng]值[zhi],不[bu]少[shao]分[fen]析[xi]人[ren]士[shi]认[ren]为[wei],人[ren]民[min]币[bi]短[duan]期[qi]内[na]将[jiang]继[ji]续[xu]处[chu]于[yu]升[sheng]值[zhi]通[tong]道[dao],甚[shen]至[zhi]有[you]观[guan]点[dian]预[yu]测[ce]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]汇[hui]率[lv]将[jiang]进[jin]入[ru]较[jiao]长[chang]的[de]升[sheng]值[zhi]过[guo]程[cheng]。 与[yu]此[ci]同[tong]时[shi],人[ren]民[min]币[bi]资[zi]产[chan]受[shou]追[zhui]捧[peng]程[cheng]度[du]仍[reng]在[zai]延[yan]续[xu],这[zhe]将[jiang]支[zhi]撑[cheng]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]汇[hui]率[lv]长[chang]期[qi]稳[wen]定[ding]。人[ren]民[min]币[bi]储[chu]备[bei]规[gui]模[mo]在[zai]全[quan]球[qiu]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]结[jie]构[gou]中[zhong]占[zhan]比[bi]持[chi]续[xu]刷[shua]新[xin]高[gao]。根[gen]据[ju]IMF最[zui]新[xin]数[shu]据[ju]显[xian]示[shi],今[jin]年[nian]二[er]季[ji]度[du]末[mo],人[ren]民[min]币[bi]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]总[zong]额[e]实[shi]现[xian]连[lian]续[xu]六[liu]个[ge]季[ji]度[du]的[de]增[zeng]长[chang],人[ren]民[min]币[bi]在[zai]全[quan]球[qiu]官[guan]方[fang]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]总[zong]额[e]由[you]一[yi]季[ji]度[du]末[mo]亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan]升[sheng]至[zhi]亿[yi]美[mei]元[yuan],在[zai]全[quan]球[qiu]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]占[zhan]比[bi]升[sheng]至[zhi].%,刷[shua]新[xin]历[li]史[shi]高[gao]点[dian]。 不[bu]过[guo],尽[jin]管[guan]市[shi]场[chang]普[pu]遍[bian]认[ren]为[wei]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]汇[hui]率[lv]长[chang]期[qi]仍[reng]有[you]望[wang]保[bao]持[chi]稳[wen]定[ding]甚[shen]至[zhi]是[shi]升[sheng]势[shi],但[dan]经[jing]历[li]了[liao]三[san]季[ji]度[du]的[de]显[xian]著[zhu]大[da]涨[zhang]后[hou],预[yu]计[ji]四[si]季[ji]度[du]会[hui]因[yin]“大[da]选[xuan]效[xiao]应[ying]”出[chu]现[xian]一[yi]定[ding]调[diao]整[zheng]。 兴[xing]业[ye]研[yan]究[jiu]宏[hong]观[guan]团[tuan]队[dui]认[ren]为[wei],四[si]季[ji]度[du]美[mei]元[yuan]指[zhi]数[shu]仍[reng]有[you]上[shang]行[xing]空[kong]间[jian],将[jiang]可[ke]能[nen]会[hui]对[dui]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]汇[hui]率[lv]形[xing]成[cheng]阶[jie]段[duan]性[xing]施[shi]压[ya],但[dan]紧[jin]货[huo]币[bi]、宽[kuan]信[xin]用[yong]周[zhou]期[qi]仍[reng]在[zai]中[zhong]期[qi]继[ji]续[xu]支[zhi]撑[cheng]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]汇[hui]率[lv]升[sheng]值[zhi]。 此[ci]外[wai],随[sui]着[zhou]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]资[zi]产[chan]在[zai]全[quan]球[qiu]的[de]需[xu]求[qiu]度[du]越[yue]来[lai]越[yue]高[gao],不[bu]少[shao]分[fen]析[xi]认[ren]为[wei]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]在[zai]国[guo]际[ji]货[huo]币[bi]体[ti]系[xi]中[zhong]地[di]位[wei]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]提[ti]升[sheng]。植[zhi]信[xin]投[tou]资[zi]首[shou]席[xi]经[jing]济[ji]学[xue]家[jia]兼[jian]研[yan]究[jiu]院[yuan]院[yuan]长[chang]连[lian]平[ping]表[biao]示[shi],全[quan]球[qiu]各[ge]主[zhu]要[yao]经[jing]济[ji]体[ti]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]配[pei]置[zhi]人[ren]民[min]币[bi]资[zi]产[chan]、特[te]别[bie]是[shi]中[zhong]国[guo]国[guo]债[zhai]的[de]意[yi]愿[yuan]会[hui]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]增[zeng]强[qiang],人[ren]民[min]币[bi]在[zai]全[quan]球[qiu]外[wai]汇[hui]储[chu]备[bei]份[fen]额[e]有[you]望[wang]持[chi]续[xu]提[ti]升[sheng],人[ren]民[min]币[bi]国[guo]际[ji]化[hua]的[de]储[chu]备[bei]功[gong]能[nen]将[jiang]继[ji]续[xu]加[jia]强[qiang]。

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暴涨500点!人民币假期悄然飙升,后市或这样走!

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